New software predicts pancreatic cancer risk:
US scientists have developed a new computer tool to help identify people at risk of pancreatic cancer. The software, written by a team at Johns Hopkins Kimmel Cancer Center, is designed to help doctors and genetic counsellors decide who would benefit most from early screening for the disease.
Most cases of pancreatic cancer are not inherited, but around ten per cent are thought to be caused by a mutated gene. The disease is one of the most aggressive forms of cancer - most patients die within a year of being diagnosed, while 95 per cent die within five years. In the UK, there are over 7,100 cases of pancreatic cancer and 7,000 deaths each year.
‘But not everybody who inherits a faulty gene will develop the disease’, explains team member Alison Klein: ‘Even if there is a 100 percent chance that an individual carries a pancreas cancer gene, their risk for developing the disease is only 20 to 25 percent over their lifetime’, she said, adding ‘So, while it's a rare disease, the need for screening in these persons is important’.
To test the new tool, called PancPRO, Klein and her colleagues used information given by more than 6,000 people in 961 families when they joined the Johns Hopkins pancreas cancer registry. Overall, 26 of the 31 individuals identified as high risk by the program developed pancreas cancer over an 11 year period.
The software is freely available online for health care professionals, and details appeared in the April 10 issue of the Journal of Clinical Oncology. The authors caution that anyone with a family history of pancreas cancer should seek specialist advice.
Source:
Johns Hopkins Develops Pancreas Cancer-Risk Model: Johns Hopkins University Gazette: 23/4/07